Here is where things stand right now in the NIT Pool, in terms of who is still alive to win, and how many of the 32 remaining scenarios they would win in:
Jon Caplin (8)
Gary Kirby (5)
Robert Dokes (4)
Brendan Loy (3)
Lauren Taylor (2)
Mark West (2)
Steve Ivey (2)
Scott Robertson (2)
Jeremy Gist (1)
Chris Wachtel (1)
Brian Putorak (1)
Kelly Strutz (1)
David Kreutz (1)
Kevin Hauschulz (1)
Dave Whelan (1)
As you can see, the current leader, Dave Whelan, is just barely alive to win: he only prevails in one scenario. That's because his predicted champion, Florida, is out. Whelan will be mathematically eliminated unless St. Mary's and Kentucky both win tonight -- and he then will need Penn State and St. Mary's to reach the championship game, and Penn State to win.
Meanwhile, Jon Caplin, although currently in 12th place, actually has the best chance of winning the pool -- in fact, he's the only contestant who is completely "safe" tonight. He cannot be mathematically eliminated, no matter what happens in the Notre Dame-Kentucky and St. Mary's-San Diego St. games. (Though his best-case scenario would be wins by St. Mary's and Kentucky, which would give him a perfect Final Four.)
In any event, here is a look at who will still be alive to win at the end of tonight, and how many of the remaining 8 scenarios they'd win in, depending on how the games turn out:
If ND & SDSU win:
Brendan Loy (3)
Scott Robertson (2)
Robert Dokes (2)
Jon Caplin (1)
If Kentucky & SDSU win:
Jon Caplin (2)
Robert Dokes (2)
Gary Kirby (2)
Kelly Strutz (1)
David Kreutz (1)
If Kentucky & St. Mary's win:
Jon Caplin (3)
Gary Kirby (3)
Steve Ivey (1)
Dave Whelan (1)
If ND & St. Mary's win:
Mark West (2)
Jon Caplin (2)*
Lauren Taylor (2)*
Kevin Hauschulz (1)*
Steve Ivey (1)*
Chris Wachtel (1)*
Jeremy Gist (1)*
Brian Putorak (1)
*Note: The apparent total number of scenarios here is 11, rather than 8, because of three possible ties: between Gist and Wachtel if ND beats St. Mary's in the title game; between Ivey and Hauschulz if Penn State beats St. Mary's in the title game; or between Taylor and Caplin if Baylor beats ND in the title game.
So, to summarize...
Jon Caplin: Cannot be eliminated tonight
Gary Kirby: Eliminated if Notre Dame wins
Robert Dokes: Eliminated if St. Mary's wins
Steve Ivey: Eliminated if SDSU wins
Brendan Loy: Eliminated if either Kentucky or St. Mary's wins
Scott Robertson: Eliminated if either Kentucky or St. Mary's wins
Lauren Taylor: Eliminated if either Kentucky or SDSU wins
Mark West: Eliminated if either Kentucky or SDSU wins
Jeremy Gist: Eliminated if either Kentucky or SDSU wins
Chris Wachtel: Eliminated if either Kentucky or SDSU wins
Brian Putorak: Eliminated if either Kentucky or SDSU wins
Kevin Hauschulz: Eliminated if either Kentucky or SDSU wins
Dave Whelan: Eliminated if either Notre Dame or SDSU wins
Kelly Strutz: Eliminated if either Notre Dame or St. Mary's wins
David Kreutz: Eliminated if either Notre Dame or St. Mary's wins