Boise should root for Oregon State tomorrow

Tomorrow night, Oregon hosts Oregon State in the annual “Civil War,” which is also the de facto Pac-10 championship game this year. The stakes could hardly be higher. The winner goes to the Rose Bowl to face Ohio State. The loser, if it’s Oregon, goes to the Holiday Bowl to face (probably) Nebraska, or, if it’s Oregon State, probably tumbles all the way to the Las Vegas Bowl (!), to face BYU or Utah.

Conventional wisdom holds that #6-ranked Boise State — whose unprecedented level of respect from pollsters, pundits and fans this season is due in large part to its season-opening signature win over #7 Oregon — should root for the Ducks to beat the Beavers. After all, that would further “validate” Boise’s undefeated season. Indeed, if it happens, and everything else goes as expected this weekend, Boise would be the only team in a BCS bowl to have beaten a BCS conference’s champion. That’s a nice feather in the Broncos’ cap.

I would argue, however, that the conventional wisdom is wrong, and Boise fans should root for Oregon State to upset the Ducks. Why? Because the Broncos have already received all the meaningful dividends they can possibly reap from that Oregon win back September. They won’t earn a BCS title shot, or get a better bowl invite, by virtue of Oregon becoming the Pac-10 champ. It’ll look good on their resumé, sure, but nobody is meaningfully looking at their resumé anymore, so it doesn’t matter. Boise’s bowl fate depends on Texas-Nebraska, not Oregon-Oregon State.

By contrast, if Oregon State is able to finally cross the threshold from being a Pac-10 team that always does pretty well, but doesn’t win championships and gets precious little national attention, to a conference champ and Rose Bowl participant, it could pay huge dividends for Boise State — next season. In fact, if everything else falls into place, a win by Oregon State tomorrow could help set up a serious Boise State run at the national championship next year.

Let me take a step back and explain what the Hell I’m talking about.

Boise State is a very, very young team. As good as they are this year, they’ll be even better next year. The pollsters, who have been fairer this year to mid-majors than ever before, know this, so if the Broncos win out — particularly if they “validate” their perfect season with a BCS bowl win (admittedly, it would be better if they could do this in the Sugar Bowl, vs. the SEC runner-up, instead of in the Fiesta Bowl vs. two-loss Iowa of the perennially disrespected Big Ten) — they will be ranked very, very highly in the preseason polls next year. Probably the highest preseason ranking ever for a mid-major in the BCS era. I’m thinking Top 5.

That’s the first piece of the Boise national-title puzzle, since the preseason polls are a team’s jumping-off point for a championship run. (Just ask Florida, Alabama and Texas, which are ahead of TCU, Cincinnati and Boise primarily because they were ranked higher in the preseason, and haven’t lost.)

The second piece of the puzzle is the Broncos’ schedule, which is far more conducive to a serious run at the big prize than this year’s schedule was. Their first two non-conference games are nothing to write home about — vs. Toledo, at Wyoming (the latter of which I plan to attend, by the way) — but then they host Oregon State on September 25, followed by a “neutral site” date with Virginia Tech in Washington, D.C. on October 2.

When I first saw that schedule a few months ago, I thought Oregon State is an okay game, but Virginia Tech is the really big one, Boise’s chance to truly make a championship statement. Now, however, there is a realistic possibility that Boise could be playing two consecutive Top 10 opponents in the Beavers and the Hokies. If Boise wins both of those games — a big “if,” obviously! — and goes undefeated for the second straight season… and if there’s an opening at season’s end for a title-game participant from outside the SEC/Big 12/Pac-10/Big 10… how do you deny the Broncos a shot? How can you justify keeping them out?

Scoff if you will, but like I said, pollsters and pundits and fans have been fairer than ever to mid-majors this season, and if the scenario unfolds as I’ve described, I believe Boise next year would be like TCU this year: a mid-major team that actually has enough mainstream respect to potentially bust open the BCS’s doors, if the circumstances are right. (Unfortunately, the circumstances aren’t right for TCU this season, unless Nebraska beats Texas on Saturday. But having two or more major-conference unbeatens is a relative rarity. Next season, the circumstances might well be right.)

First, though, Oregon State needs to make that transition from an annually good Pac-10 team that nobody east of the Rockies realizes is good, to a bona fide national player. The journey starts with a win over Oregon tomorrow night, and continues with a victory over Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. If the Beavers can pull it off, the following things will happen:

• The Beavers, currently 8-3 and ranked #13 in the AP poll and #16 in the BCS and coaches’ poll, will finish 10-3, and will almost assuredly rise into the Top 10 in this season’s final polls (given that quite a few of the 15 teams above them are bound to lose, plus wins over #7 UO and #8 tOSU should allow them to leapfrog a few teams).

• With sophomore sensation Jacquizz Rogers returning, Mike Riley still the head coach, and the returning defense looking solid — and with many of this year’s other Top 10 teams likely to suffer more from graduation and NFL defections than Oregon State will — the defending Pac-10 and Rose Bowl champion Beavers should be preseason Top 10 next year, as well.

• Rogers, who would presumably need to play very well in both the Civil War and the Rose Bowl to make this scenario happen, would instantly vault into the position of serious preseason 2010 Heisman contender. This would give Oregon State the much-needed public perception boost of having a star player everybody’s heard of and is talking about (sort of like how Jahvid Best gave Cal an unusual-for-the-Pac-10 amount of preseason street cred this year, until he and the Bears started playing like crap).

Needless to say, none of those things will happen if Oregon State loses to Oregon, then beats BYU or Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl to finish 9-4. They might sniff the Top 25, both postseason and perhaps preseason, and Rogers might be a trendy preseason “sleeper” Heisman pick, but that’s about it.

But if the Beavers can beat Oregon and Ohio State, the above-listed things will happen, which would make the Oregon State @ Boise State game on September 25 at least as helpful to the Broncos’ prospects next year as this year’s tilt with the Ducks was — and then, unlike this year, they follow it up with another huge game, (crucially) away from the smurf turf, in enemy territory against Virginia Tech. So instead of having, potentially, a big (home) win followed by twelve games that are perceived as meaningless, like this year, the Broncos would actually have an opportunity to build on their success, and firmly establish themselves as legit.

(The Hokies, by the way, are currently #10 AP and coaches, #11 BCS, and should also be in the Top 10 at the end of this season, and preseason Top 10 next season, if they win their bowl game — reportedly the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Tennessee. Hence my comment about “two consecutive Top 10 opponents.”)

Oh, and if you’re wondering what are the odds that either Oregon State or Virginia Tech will lose a game next season before facing Boise State: the Beavers have just two games before traveling to Boise, both at home, vs. Division I-AA Eastern Washington and rebuilding Louisville (which will have a brand new coach). Meanwhile, the Hokies’ first three games are at home vs. Central Michigan (post-LeFevour), Division I-AA James Madison, and East Carolina. So: not bloody likely.

Now, can Boise State actually win its BCS game this year (crucial to its positioning for next year), and then win both of those big games next September/October against potential Top 10 teams? Or will the Broncos fall flat on their faces, like BYU did this year after their win against Oklahoma vaulted them into the heart of the national-championship discussion? I don’t know; I’m not predicting that Boise can pull this off. But they potentially have an opportunity that they’ve never had in their program’s history, which is all a Boise State fan (or, ahem, a bandwagon mid-major homer) can really ask for.

That opportunity gets better and better if Oregon State wins tomorrow night, and then the Beavers, Hokies, and of course the Broncos win their bowl games. And that’s why Boise State fans — and everyone else who would love to see the Little Blue Team That Could shake the foundations of the accursed BCS — should root for Oregon State tomorrow night.

Go Beavers! Beat the Ducks!

P.S. Yes, I know an Oregon State win keeps USC out of the Holiday Bowl. But frankly, I don’t care as much about the distinction between the Holiday Bowl and the Sun Bowl as I do about the prospects of a mid-major team contending for the national title. Besides, I think it’s in the Trojans’ long-term interests for folks east of the Rockies to realize there are good teams in the Pac-10 beyond USC, Cal and Oregon. So yes: I’m rooting for Oregon State.

P.P.S. That Texas-Nebraska game is a very confusing one for me, as a mid-major homer. On the one hand, a Nebraska win opens the door for TCU to play for the national title this year — but maybe not wide enough, as Cincinnati could well leapfrog TCU in the BCS standings with a win over Pittsburgh. On the other hand, a Nebraska win would very probably shut the door on Boise State’s BCS bowl chances this year, which would, in turn, be quite damaging to their national championship prospects for next year, since they wouldn’t have the chance to “validate” this year’s perfect season with a big, high-profile win over a BCS team.

If Pitt beats Cincy in the early game, it’s an easy call — I’ll root for Nebraska, and the TCU title bid. If Cincy wins, I dunno. I’ll probably still root for Nebraska, just out of a general affinity for chaos, but it sucks that a Texas loss would hurt Boise’s “two-year plan” even as it helps either the Mountain West champ or the Big East champ (practically a mid-major in its own right). Argh.