Updated BCS pecking order

It’s been a week since my original BCS pecking order post, and a number of things have changed: Virginia Tech and Ohio State lost, USC beat Notre Dame, Cincinnati beat South Florida, the Big 12’s implosion continued, and more. Plus, the first BCS standings came out, I looked at a few things more closely, re-considered a few scenarios, etc.

Anyway, here’s how I’d put things now, pecking-order-wise:

1. Undefeated Florida/Alabama. If either of these teams runs the table and wins the SEC, they’re obviously ranked #1 heading into the title game.

2. Undefeated Texas. The computers don’t much like the Longhorns — which means Texas is not as likely to make the BCS title game with a loss as I thought a week ago — but, as long as they remain undefeated, they control their destiny.

3. Undefeated Iowa. Iowa will jump to the head of the line — leapfrogging Cincy/Boise/USC — with a win at Ohio State on November 14. The question will be whether they can stay there. Depending on the exact circumstances, it might be very, very close between the Hawkeyes and a one-loss SEC champion, especially since Iowa can’t do anything to impress the voters in the season’s last two weeks. But I’m giving the edge to the unbeaten power-conference team, for now.

4. One-loss SEC champion Florida/Alabama/LSU. The precise strength of this contender depends on the exact circumstances. Among other things, the earlier the loss, the better. LSU is actually probably the strongest potential filler of this spot, since their loss is to Florida (and is already in the past), and they would need to beat Alabama on November 7, then avenge the loss to Florida on December 5, and would be riding a six-game winning streak. … Alabama’s one loss would need to be to someone other than LSU; otherwise, unless LSU loses to somebody else before or after beating Bama, the Tide would lose the SEC West to the Tigers, and could not become SEC champs (but see #7, below). On the other hand, if Alabama loses on November 28 to Auburn, that’s such a late loss that they’ll be in a much weaker poll position. And if it’s to anyone else, it starts to look like a “bad loss.” So Alabama may be the least likely to fill this spot. … Florida, meanwhile, is two games ahead of Georgia and South Carolina in the SEC East, so the one-loss Gators would go to the SEC title game no matter what. A loss in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Halloween Party on seems the most logical, although Georgia’s not actually very good. A loss at South Carolina on November 14 would be pushing it in terms of the calendar, but the Gators might be able to recover from it.

5. Undefeated Cincinnati. Cincy might be ahead of a one-loss SEC team in some scenarios, but in most scenarios, I think the Bearcats need both Texas and Iowa to lose — or one of ’em to lose, and the SEC to produce a two-loss champion — in order to reach the BCS promised land. On the flip side, if all of that happens, it’ll be close between Cincy and one-loss USC, as Jerry Palm says. But I think the Bearcats ultimately prevail. If USC’s loss was to a really good team, maybe they’d have a stronger case, but the voters have shown a surprising degree of thoughtfulness in recent years on their final ballots, and in the end, they’re going to assess everyone’s resumés and remember that USC lost to a team that will be lucky to finish 6-6. Besides, the computers don’t love USC, and they always pay attention to the number in the loss column, even when the voters are tempted to overlook it. So even if USC is #2 and Cincinnati is #3 in the polls, but it’s quite close, Cincy may get the BCS nod because of the computers.

6. One-loss USC. Barring a calamity in the SEC, I think the Trojans need Texas, Iowa and Cincinnati to lose — although, as indicated above, it could be very close with Cincy. It could also be very close with #7, below…

7. One-loss, SEC West runner-up Alabama. Note that I said “SEC West runner-up,” not “SEC runner-up.” This is the doomsday scenario that I blogged about last week, in which Alabama loses to LSU, the Tigers win out, win the division by tiebreaker, lose to Florida in the SEC title game, and an all-SEC, non-rematch BCS championship between Florida and Alabama becomes a possibility. Would the voters take Alabama over USC in this scenario? Over Cincinnati? What would the computers do? I really have no idea, but this is my best guess.

8. One-loss Big 12 champion Texas/Oklahoma State/Kansas. I had Texas and Okie State ranked higher in the pecking order last week, but that was before I realized how much the computers are down on the Big 12, and also before additional losses by alleged contenders further devalued the conference overall. I don’t think the voters are going to treat the Big 12 as the SEC’s almost-as-warlike western cousin, like they did last year, given how things have gone this season. That said, any of these teams would be a strong contender with one loss and a conference title. Yes, even Kansas, which would have to beat Oklahoma, Nebraska and Missouri at home, and win at Texas Tech and Kansas State and Texas, and beat either Texas (again) or Oklahoma State in the title game, to reach this point. They may be barely ranked now, but if the Jayhawks could get to 12-1, they’d necessarily have earned plenty of respect. (Of course, it won’t happen.)

9. One-loss ACC champion Miami. This may be too low — it’s possible the Hurricanes would be ahead of the teams in #7 and #8, particularly Okie State or Kansas; it’s even possible they might challenge USC — but I’m just not sure. I know this: the “ACC champion” thing is critical. If Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech both win out, or if Virginia Tech loses one or more conference games, then the Hurricanes, if they win out, will win the division and play in the conference title game. On the other hand, if Virginia Tech wins out, but Georgia Tech loses one or more conference games, then the Hurricanes could finish 11-1 yet lose the two-way tiebreaker with the Hokies. If that happens, they’ll be further down the pecking order than this. They only get this spot if they win out and win the conference. Voters like conference champions.

10. Undefeated Boise State, if Oregon wins out. I think one-loss Pac-10 champion Oregon belongs in the spot below this; therefore, Boise State belongs here, if and only if the Ducks win out. The voters are dumb and biased, but they’re not sufficiently dumb or biased to send one-loss Oregon to the title game over an undefeated team that beat Oregon. (I think.)

11. One-loss Oregon. The Ducks’ path to Pasadena — not on January 1, but on January 7 — is simple: beat USC, win the Pac-10, go to the national championship game… if Texas, Iowa, Cincinnati and Boise State lose, and the Big 12 produces a two-loss champion, and Miami either loses a game or doesn’t win the ACC, and the SEC doesn’t manage to gobble up both title-game slots. Okay, maybe it’s not that simple after all.

12. One-loss ACC champion Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets need Miami to lose; otherwise they’re stuck as non-division-champs, and again, voters like conference champions. Even if Miami loses, and thus GT wins the ACC by winning out, my gut says they’re behind Oregon, et al. in the pecking order. It could be close with the Ducks, though (and messy, if Boise’s in the picture).

After that, it gets really, really messy. Among the contenders, in no particular order:

• Undefeated TCU
• Undefeated Boise State, if Oregon doesn’t win out
• One-loss SEC title-game loser (the “rematch” scenario)
• One-loss, non-division-champion Texas (i.e., if the Longhorns lose to Okie State, and the Cowboys win out, then lose in the Big 12 title game to a team with 2+ losses)
• One-loss, non-division-champion Miami
• One-loss, non-division-champion Georgia Tech
• One-loss Big Ten champion (Iowa or Penn State)
• One-loss Big East champion (Cincy, Pitt, WVU or USF)
• Two-loss SEC champion
• Two-loss ACC champion Virginia Tech

I’m not even going to attempt to rank those possibilities. There are too many variables to even try, and it’s unlikely we’ll get to that point.

UPDATE: Okay, okay, if you put a gun to my head…

13. Undefeated TCU
14. One-loss, non-division-champion Miami
15. One-loss SEC title-game loser (the “rematch” scenario)
16. Undefeated Boise State, if Oregon doesn’t win out
17. One-loss, non-division-champion Texas (i.e., if the Longhorns lose to Okie State, and the Cowboys win out, then lose in the Big 12 title game to a team with 2+ losses)
18. One-loss, non-division-champion Georgia Tech
19. Two-loss SEC champion
20. One-loss Big Ten champion (Iowa or Penn State)
21. Two-loss ACC champion Virginia Tech
22. One-loss Big East champion (Cincy, Pitt, WVU or USF)