[UPDATE, 11:00 PM MDT: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! I have (finally) posted a new update, covering both Ana and Bill.]
Mark it down: on August 15, two-and-a-half months into the Atlantic hurricane season, we finally have our first named storm. Tropical Storm Ana formed overnight.
It was our original “proto-Ana,” the one further west, that ultimately won the “race” and earned the name, beating out the newfangled “proto-Ana” (now “proto-Bill”) to the east. Tropical Depression 2 became Ana exactly 24 48 hours after dissipating, having unexpectedly regenerated yesterday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, the eastern storm appears to be imminently becoming a depression, and will probably be designated T.D. 3 later this morning, and maybe T.S. Bill after that. But Ana is the center of attention for now.
The five-day forecast for T.S. Ana looks ominous for Florida, track-wise at least. The intensity is presently forecast to stay relatively low, never quite exceeding tropical storm strength, but the NHC admits this is a conservative, and somewhat low-confidence, forecast. FLhurricane.com summarizes: “Some models weaken it (like the GFDL)… But others, such as the HWRF show in becoming a category 2 hurricane. … The relatively small size of the storm will make it very difficult to predict the intensity of the storm, in fact the National Hurricane Center in the discussion has indicated that their current forecast is very uncertain intensity wise and may be on the conservative side.”
The intensity uncertainty also creates some doubts about the track forecast beyond three days, since a weaker Ana would likely go more west, while a stronger one would probably go more north: “Thus the National Hurricane Center’s forecast, at least for 3 days seems good. Beyond that it really could be anywhere in the cone.” Alan Sullivan elaborates: “Will Ana trek over Hispaniola and Cuba, as so many hurricanes have done in recent years, weakening over land, but unleashing floods of rain? Or will it stay north of the mountainous islands, intensify further, and hit Florida? Ana is unlikely to recurve and remain an ocean storm. It means to hit something.”
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Hi Brendan,
Have you closed your Weather Nerd blog? Should I be watching The Living Room Times only for your hurricane season blogging?
Thanks,
Leslie
*Another* ridiculously weak hurricane season causes goofball global warming alarmists to wet themselves in abject disappointment.
LGermaine, see my new post above for an answer to your question. 🙂
Lawrence, I address the global warming question in that post, too, or rather link to Eric Berger addressing it. I’ll just say it’s too early to declare this a “ridiculously weak” season — say that it’s starting unusually late, and that’d be accurate, but since the peak of the season is always from mid-August to late October, at this point it is merely late-starting, not necessarily weak. Now, having said that, it’s quite LIKELY to be weak, because of El Niño, but that’s a future probability, not something you can speak about in the past tense. More importantly, whether it’s ultimately a weak or strong season, that won’t prove anything about global warming, just as 2004 and 2005 didn’t prove anything about it.
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