Tropical Depression Two has weakened, and may never become Tropical Storm Ana after all. As Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned yesterday, “the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm’s organization.” Alan Sullivan writes this morning that TD2 “has no upper support, and it may weaken to a remnant low later today.”
[UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center’s 11am EDT advisory concurs: “THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS.”]
Sullivan adds: “Whatever remains of the system should drift west with surface flow; it will not turn northwest as previously modeled, when the storm was supposed to be deeper. It might regenerate eventually, near the Leewards, but that is a long shot.”
The bigger concern — and now apparently the more likely “proto-Ana” — is the strong tropical wave some 250 miles SSE of the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC gives it a “medium” chance, 30-50 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Sullivan notes that it “is now modeled to cross the NE Caribbean as a hurricane — inevitably hitting some islands — then approach the eastern US while a polar trough digs over the interior. Such troughs have brought the cool summer to the eastern states; they may also afford hurricane protection, but this could be a near thing. The Carolinas could get hit.”
Of course, a couple of days ago, TD2 was “modeled” to hit New York City and New England as Hurricane Ana. Trying to predict such things, so early on, is a bit like making college football bowl projections before the season even begins. Time will tell whether Three-to-be ever gets further along the path toward development than Two has. (And whether Florida will really steamroll over its ridiculously easy schedule, or get tripped up by South Carolina or somesuch.)
FWIW, Charles Fenwick did mention yesterday that “[f]orecast models have been very aggressive in developing this storm; far more so than they had been for [what is] now Tropical Depression Two. They are advertising a tropical storm by Saturday with significant development to follow.” But again: we shall see.